Federico Reyes Heroles
Trump 2.1 has shaken the world. Mexico’s president has reacted prudently. But as the months go by, that initial prudence may be reaching its limits. Is there a strategy for dealing with this character? Yes, it’s not a formula. However, he can be contained, and perhaps his outbursts can be curbed by winning over public opinion.
In his latest letter, Trump demonstrates, once again, in Orbán style, that he is an extortionist: “Mexico has been helping me secure our border.” So far, the same tone: Sheinbaum as a fine lady. Mind you, Fine is equivalent to OK. But immediately comes the complaint: “…what Mexico has done is not enough. Mexico has not yet stopped the cartels that are trying to turn all of North America into a playground for drug trafficking.” The golfer’s reflexes appear. The seizures of weapons, drugs, and the destruction of laboratories are unprecedented. The same goes for the capture of drug lords and extraditions.
Strengths and weaknesses.
1. Despite having secured budget approval in both houses, Trump’s legislative fragility remains. Elections are coming up in New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. The Republican stance of requiring citizenship to vote has already stumbled in Texas and other states such as Missouri and Florida. Trump has midterm elections in just over a year. That’s enough time to see a change in perception.
Trump will govern for less than four years. Sheinbaum will govern for more than five years and will see Trump leave the White House. However, the lame duck effect is most likely to begin in 2027. Sheinbaum still has total control of the legislature, but her leadership has already shown serious cracks.
2. Depending on the source, US growth will hover around 1.8%. The IMF’s global forecasts have fallen to 2.3%. However, there is a widespread consensus that Trump’s capricious tariff measures have slowed investment, and a period of stagnation could engulf many countries, including Mexico.
3. The damage to US consumers from tariffs has already begun and will be much more severe. Those consumers are our potential allies. A simple list—from berries to overpriced cars—would help.
4. “… Your government has not done enough.” Let’s talk about shared responsibility. Who distributes fentanyl in the US? How many drug lords have been arrested there? Who receives the ships with stolen fuel? Trailers crossing the border undetected?
5. Mexico could launch a massive media campaign, investing in advertising with the truth. Dozens of consulates could focus on refuting key issues in the confrontation rife with falsehoods: a) drug trafficking involves drug lords and colluding US authorities; b) according to the World Bank, the fertility rate (number of children per woman of childbearing age) is 1.66, below the replacement rate of 2.1. This could lead to a collapse in pensions, the healthcare system, and greater labor shortages. Only through migration are they able to maintain some population growth, saving their country from this threat. Japan (21% less by 2050); Russia, China, Italy, and Spain are not far behind. There are dramatic examples. Population recovery policies are very costly. In 2023, all population growth in the US was due to migrants. MAGA would be impossible without migration, which takes care of jobs rejected by Americans.
6. Migrants do not explain crime in the US; they are 60% less likely to be incarcerated than a US citizen (Goldstein Immigration Lawyers). Incarcerated per 100,000 inhabitants: native US citizens, 1,221; undocumented immigrants, 613; legal immigrants, 319 (CATO).
Baltasar Gracián (1601-1658) dedicated his life to investigating the human condition, including prudence: “There are no good relations with meanness, because it lacks virtue.”
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