Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
During his time as an exiled former president in Mexico, Evo Morales convinced Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the benefits of electing members of the judiciary by popular vote. In Bolivia, this had allowed him to secure the support of judges necessary to carry out his government’s agenda. Evo said that it gave him control over the three branches of government. He thought he controlled the army, but he was wrong when he appointed the commander-in-chief, who was not loyal to him. Hence his exile.
When Bolivia’s new president, Luis “Lucho” Arce, broke politically with Evo and confronted him, he did so by pitting his judges against Evo’s judges. The political war between them was partly settled in court, with judges defending Evo against judges loyal to “Lucho,” the president. The judiciary was the battleground for the political war between the two leaders of the MAS, the political party to which they both belonged.
Lucho managed to get the judges to prevent Evo from running for president again. And they went even further: they accused Evo of rape and sought to arrest him. Evo’s judges prevented this, and the situation ended with Evo taking refuge in his Chapare region, Bolivia’s coca-growing area, surrounded by armed loyalists.
Ahead of the presidential elections, the MAS presented three candidates: Evo’s, Lucho’s, and the president of the Bolivian Senate. Between the three of them, they account for less than 13% of the vote. In contrast, the two leading candidates represent different factions of the Bolivian right, one more moderate than the other. One of the two will surely be the next president of Bolivia. Evo decided to call for the annulment of the vote. Voting is compulsory in Bolivia.
Two major issues are responsible for the decline of the left in Bolivia. One is the transformation of members of the judiciary into political assets of the leaders in conflict, following their election by popular vote. Today, the judiciary in Bolivia responds to political interests unrelated to the exercise of the law and twists its interpretation of the law to suit those interests. Thus, the Bolivian judiciary has become hostage to the various political groups in the government. It is the battleground for real wars between political mafias.
The other area of conflict is economic and social management. The MAS governments preached national sovereignty, understood as national liberation, based on the nationalized oil industry as a source of resources for public financing. They marginalized private companies, and the government took over the management of the oil industry, which quickly led to its ruin through inefficiency and corruption.
Gasoline shortages led to economic stagnation and runaway inflation. At the same time, food and raw materials began to be in short supply due to a lack of foreign currency, especially dollars. The black market for foreign currency accelerated inflation.
Economic mismanagement, combined with corruption, meant that despite significant spending on social programs that distributed cash to the population, towns and cities turned against the government identified with the MAS, Lucho Arce, and Evo Morales. Initially, they lifted many Bolivians out of poverty, but mismanagement caused them to fall back into poverty.
The inefficient and corrupt government, combined with the use of the judiciary as an instrument of war against its enemies, led Bolivia to decide to change course, following Sun Tzu’s dictum: “the wise man finds his true path.” Following in the footsteps of Argentina, Peru, and Ecuador, Bolivia has decided to leave behind the populist, authoritarian, and corrupt leftist governments to seek another path, one that is less ideological and more aligned with political platforms that seek economic solutions that are more understandable to the majority, with a free market and a social conscience.
The results of the vote indicate that there will be a second round on October 19 between the two leading candidates, both from the right. Bolivia is changing course.
And let this serve as a warning to Mexico.
ricardopascoe@hotmail.com
@rpascoep
Further Reading: