Antonio Navalón
There is no country like Israel. One of the smallest countries on the planet and with one of the smallest populations, the Jewish people have experienced multiple diasporas since the beginning of history. But Israel is much more than that; it is the Promised Land and the place where, for centuries, millions of people longed to arrive. Not to mention that, in many cases, this meant giving up their lives in the attempt.
Everyone knows that this is a unique place. Everyone knows that the Old Testament begins with the story of the Israelites’ liberation from slavery. It is Yahweh—and his declaration of “I am who I am”—who sends Moses to free his people after centuries of slavery in Egypt, where their labor ranged from building pyramids to houses and palaces for the pharaohs.
Israel is also a people whose history is marked not only by suffering and pain, but by challenges that have tested the limits of reason. It is impossible to refer to the Jewish people without recalling such catastrophic events as the Holocaust or the multiple persecutions and attempts at eradication by different societies and leaders who believed they had the right to eliminate this group of people, whose only fault was to be born Jewish. But what must be understood is that without all this persecution, tragedy, and hatred, the State of Israel as we know it today would most likely not exist.
Upon being chosen as the divine people, Israel received not only the privilege but also the burden of facing the most profound internal dilemmas: how to be the chosen people and, at the same time, create—directly or indirectly—its own enemies. Sometimes, monsters are designed to destroy other monsters.
On October 7, 2023, a race began from which there is no turning back. That day marked the beginning of a path of profound and irreversible transformations. Israel, a country that has historically been a symbol of suffering at the hands of genocide, today faces increasingly frequent and widespread accusations of committing in Gaza what it has suffered throughout its existence.
It is difficult to look at the images: relentless bombing, systematic destruction, and deaths that are almost impossible to count, as if they no longer matter. However, it is impossible to forget the Israeli children brutally murdered during the Hamas incursion on October 7. Let us not forget that it all began that day.
This is not just about blood and fire. What is at stake is the destruction of a moral construct that sustained a people who survived the Holocaust and who, for decades, found in that wound an element of support in the judgment of their ethical behavior.
From here on, what is clear is that everything will be more difficult for Israel. Today, in the 21st century, amid global fear generated by the constant threat of nuclear weapons, Israel is once again at the center of the geopolitical chessboard. The big question is whether Israel would be capable of using nuclear weapons first. The answer is simple: yes.
What we are experiencing now is a direct consequence of the artificial creation of the Balfour map. In this regard, we cannot ignore the role and part that England played in the outcome of this whole problem. And it is not just about the monarchy, the ceremonial guards, or English quaintness. The English are the authors of one of the most twisted, complex, and consequence-laden geopolitical designs.
Since the early 20th century, it was assumed that the future would depend on control of oil. It was the United Kingdom that, by replacing coal with oil as the energy source for its navy, marked the beginning of a new order. From then on, geopolitical situations began to be woven that would allow England, even in its decline, to retain its global influence. Access to oil wells and coal mines became its primary tool of power.
The Balfour Map was conceived as a strategy to maintain that dominance. But it was not Balfour, nor the British Empire, who really gave Israel the right to exist. It was Adolf Hitler, through the horror of the extermination camps.
For their part, the Americans—those early revolutionaries who rose against the tea tax and later consolidated their independence—understood after World War I, mainly under the leadership of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, that as long as the British Empire remained the dominant power, they could not fully exercise their hegemony.
Today, Israel is at the center of the conflict: at war with Iran and with a presence and influence in Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria. This situation represents, finally, the collapse of the Balfour map. At the same time, it poses the existential dilemma of a complex people—who, despite having been chosen by God—today face the real possibility of using nuclear weapons as a means of survival.
Among all the colonial legacies, the most problematic remains the energy map, which includes the geopolitical invention of the Arabian Peninsula, control of the Persian Gulf, and, like an open wound, the partition of India. It was a division that Gandhi opposed until his last breath.
The British, who knew that Muhammad Ali Jinnah – leader of the Muslim League and first governor general of independent Pakistan – had cancer and would soon die, never shared this view. They forced the separation of Pakistan and India, knowing that they would achieve two objectives: to create a permanent conflict between the two nations and, at the same time, make them more manageable by directly applying the philosophy of “divide and rule.” At this point, given the level of escalation and tension the world has reached, it is pointless to apportion blame.
The big and urgent question that needs to be answered is: Can Israel be the first country to use a nuclear bomb without triggering a global catastrophe? The answer is a resounding and emphatic no.
If Israel fires, Iran will respond. And after Iran, it will be Pakistan that pulls the trigger. Russia will be forced to intervene. Then other players will come in, such as India, the United States, or even powers with hidden reserves. And then… a nuclear hurricane that will threaten global survival.
The fundamental question is whether Israel can survive this moment. The only way to understand whether it would be capable of using nuclear weapons first is to realize that, for Israel, the dilemma is existential: disappear entirely from the map or exercise all its military, human, and strategic power to retain control of the territory it currently occupies. Although small in size, it should not be forgotten that Israel is a military power.
In an ideal scenario, the Arab world should be governed from a perspective of balance, overcoming the Shiite problem and leaving control to the Sunnis and Saudi Arabia. But that is not what is happening.
Can the world survive without Israel?
We have no experience or precedent to know. But what we do know is that the world has suddenly become much more complex, and that the centers of power have shifted to regions that, although designed from the outset by the colonial powers, we never imagined would come to play a central role in the drama of the 21st century.
Today, China and the United States are the only visible empires. However, it is also essential to acknowledge the role played by Russia and to recognize that India is emerging as a rising power.
And in the midst of all this, amid the struggle for control of 8 billion human beings, the global flashpoint is in a small country called Israel.
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