Special Reports

México 2021: Risks and Opportunities

Image: Alpha Spirit on iStock      It is hard to be optimistic about the Mexican economy considering the chaotic situation created by the pandemic efforts’ mismanagement. At best, giving the AMLO administration the benefit of the doubt, the official number of casualties for covid so far is 138,000 and growing fast, ranking as the third …

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Risks and Opportunities 2021

Photo: Anni Roenkae on Pexels 2020 witnessed once-in-a-century swings in the economy, policy, and markets. The bosses of The Eurasia Group begin their new year salutation with the following statement: “At the start of 2021, the United States is the most powerful, politically divided, and economically unequal of the world’s industrial democracies. China is America’s …

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What went wrong with our forecast?

Photo: Francescoch on iStock Four months ago, we published a report on the Mexican Economy that indicated the imminent collapse of the public finances and its consequences on the economy as a whole ( https://sepgra.mirrorlinux.net/mexico-on-the-verge-of-the-perfect-storm/ ). Still, it didn’t happen. What went wrong with our projections, or what caused a change in the government revenues’ …

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Post Conventions Spirit

Photo: Richard Lee on Unsplash          All signs indicate that the 2020 US presidential election will be contentious, and the result most likely be bitterly contested, regardless of who wins. The degree of polarization experienced nine weeks before the election, continues to be exacerbated by tweets, public statements, and actions taking place in different parts …

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Economy down, Market up, Does it make sense?

Photo by Zdeněk Macháček on Unsplash        While the economy registered a significant drop in this quarter, the market indexes skyrocketed. The fastest 30% drawdown in the history of global equities in the first quarter, followed by the most substantial 50-day advance in market history in the second quarter.  It proves that markets are driven …

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Mexico on the Verge of the Perfect Storm.

Photo by Michael Rogers at Unsplash Mexico on the Verge of the Perfect Storm      Contrary to the official view, the worst is not over. As a matter of fact, it is about to begin. Springtime arrived, and with it, the effects of a lockdown caused by a tiny virus. Whole industries shut down, leaving …

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Economic Policy in times of Coronavirus, two approaches

Economic policy in times of Coronavirus, two approaches         It is interesting to observe in a graph the correlation between the deluge of money released by the Federal Reserve Board since March, and its effect on the S&P 500 index. The moment the funds start to flow, the direction of the curve reverses its course …

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