Ricardo Pascoe Pierce.
Mexico is adrift because it lacks a national project. It stumbles along every day, confirming that it has no idea which direction to take. The ruling party, Morena, offers no national project, nor is it interested in doing so. What it has is a project for power. Everything it does—militarization, distribution of money, control of judges and prosecutors, espionage, electoral reform, selective combat against criminals, persecution of opponents, censorship of journalists—is to retain power. Still, it is not a project to make Mexico more prosperous, more egalitarian, united, articulated around values of democracy and transparency, or respected as a nation. Because his government’s platform lacks these national criteria, it is valid to say that it lacks a national project.
On the other hand, it does have a political project aimed solely at achieving power. Its activity as a government is directed exclusively toward perpetuating itself in power. Its specific power project is aimed at retaining Congress in 2027 and regaining the presidency in 2030. Nothing more. That is Morena’s proposal for Mexico’s future.
Given that Morena lacks a national project and is solely dedicated to consolidating its power project, it is leading Mexico down a high-speed road that will inevitably crash into the relentless wall of reality. But given its blindness to anything that does not fit with its lust for power, it does not see the wall in front of it.
That is why it believes that everything will be forgotten if it can hold out for 10 days, so that people stop talking about Adán Augusto or Hernán Bermúdez and the stench of corruption that accompanies them. It also believes that the exact mechanism of forgetting will occur with the war between cartels in Sinaloa, the bribery of governors or members of the federal cabinet, the frivolity and corruption of his deputies and senators, the teacher murdered in Veracruz, the corruption of military commanders, the businesses of AMLO’s children, the lack of medicines, the deterioration of education, and the school dropout rate of millions of girls and boys. The list of shortcomings is endless. Morena firmly believes that none of this matters. The only thing that matters is the project for power.
As Morena has successfully pursued the objectives of its power project, it believes that these magical 10 days will alleviate its pains and mistakes. And Morena has indeed done well in power. Day after day, it destroys, colonizes, or withdraws funding from the institutions that gave strength, solvency, and credibility to the Mexican state. Soon, the Mexican state will be reduced to bones, and then, and only then, will Morena’s dream of eternal power and the elimination of senseless “political alternation” be happily fulfilled.
However, reality is stubborn and does not relent. Morena’s government is running out of money and will soon be unable to sustain the activity it believes is essential for its survival as the ruling party. The money that is sucking the life out of the government’s viability comes from commitments inherited by Sheinbaum from López Obrador’s government.
Mexico’s federal budget for 2025 is 9.07 trillion pesos.
Tax collection is slightly below the projected amount at the beginning of the year. If the year ends with zero GDP growth, the second half could see a significant collapse in federal government revenues. Currently, revenues have declined by approximately 2%. At the same time, public debt is growing by nearly one trillion pesos by 2025 (from 14.3 trillion in 2024 to 15.1 trillion in 2025). Debt interest payments account for 15% of the total budget. In other words, the Sheinbaum administration is betting on public debt to save its government. The increase in debt is mainly due to social programs, fiscal spending, and the public deficit. Public debt accounts for approximately 51% of the country’s GDP. Meanwhile, social programs and pensions account for 31% of total public spending in 2025. Spending on social programs and pensions is almost 3 trillion pesos.
Health spending fell in 2025 to 9.9% of the federal budget. Education spending also fell to 12.1% of the budget. Security fell to 6.6%, with the exception that military spending rises when construction projects in which they are involved (ports, railways, tourism projects, etc.) are included. For projects “inherited” from the previous administration, the budget allocated is 4% of the 9 trillion pesos planned. These include the Maya Train, Dos Bocas, various subsidies to Pemex, AIFA airport, and Mexicana de Aviación. This is even without considering the inevitable adjustments that occur throughout the year in response to contingencies and unforeseen events.
The weight of public debt, social programs, fiscal spending, and the public deficit is squeezing the public budget, as all tend to grow in line with demographic conditions (social benefits) and market conditions (uncertainty, inflation, tariffs, interest rates). The weakened economy is Sheinbaum’s Achilles’ heel. Added to the precarious budget is the uncertainty of the relationship with the United States and international inflationary pressures. The tariffs threatened by Trump may or may not be imposed next Friday, August 1. However, tariffs have already been imposed on tomatoes, aluminum, and steel. The entire economic war is slowing down the national economy even more than it already is. The private sector is taking a wait-and-see attitude.
It is not investing until it knows the outcome of the economic and legal conditions governing relations with the United States. Even the threat of renegotiating the USMCA (Sheinbaum says it is not a “renegotiation” but an “adjustment”) means an even longer wait, which will cause some investors to relocate to other countries.
And finally, the elephant in the room: the issue of criminal violence, cartels, and the existence of alliances between politicians and drug traffickers. The most significant aggravating factor in the country’s economic situation is the relationship between politicians and drug traffickers, who are allied to defend their business. In other words, the power project. The United States views Mexico’s situation as a matter of national security. For this reason, they insist on cutting the political-drug trafficking umbilical cord. And clearly, the Mexican government is resisting because of what this rupture implies for its political project of continuity in power. If it begins to hand over Morenistas involved in drug trafficking, and apparently there is a first list, the Morenista government could collapse immediately.
The refusal to bow to pressure from Washington to hand over the Morenistas is because the Morenista power project takes precedence. That is the crossroads. It is the existential dilemma facing Mexico and the president. And it is already upon us. Not tomorrow, not in the future. Today.
ricardopascoe@hotmail.com
@rpascoep
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