Following Trump’s inauguration, the Mexican government’s stance on U.S. policies, particularly the “stay in Mexico” program, has been complex. Despite public rejections, there are unpublicized agreements influencing bilateral relations. Mexico faces pressure to conform to U.S. demands while balancing its sovereignty and relationships with authoritarian regimes, posing a significant diplomatic challenge.
The newspaper Reforma reports that Donald Trump’s administration plans to deport 5 million undocumented Mexicans starting January 20, 2025, revealing the largest nationality of undocumented migrants. The situation raises concerns about deportees’ safety, as 23 countries refuse to accept their citizens. Trump’s actual deportation numbers remain uncertain, with historical context suggesting limited impact.
During Marco Rubio’s Senate confirmation hearing, he emphasized collaboration with Mexico to address drug trafficking and compliance with CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC. President Sheinbaum’s enthusiastic acceptance contrasts with her government’s previous rejection of U.S. agency involvement. This raises concerns over future cooperation amid escalating tensions regarding trade and organized crime in Mexico.
On January 10, 2025, Nicolás Maduro’s dictatorship was solidified in Venezuela with minimal international recognition, particularly from Latin America. Mexico’s foreign policy has shifted under López Obrador, aligning with repressive regimes like Cuba and Nicaragua, prioritizing political survival over democratic ideals, while risking relationships with traditional allies like the U.S. and Canada.
On December 30, 2024, El Universal aired concerns about potential armed uprisings in Mexico amid fears of U.S. intervention. A document attributed to AMLO revealed an alarming hardline perspective among Morena leaders, emphasizing anti-violence rhetoric while indicating potential insurrection against perceived threats from foreign military involvement and the U.S.
In 2025, Mexico transitions to an authoritarian political regime under Morena, characterized by crushed opposition and a market economy dependent on foreign and drug-trafficking capital. The justice system shifts towards unofficial preventive detention, promoting social control. This new system prioritizes economic elites while sidelining genuine democratic processes, diminishing public accountability.
Ricardo Pascoe Pierce The appointment of the former governor of Chiapas, Rutilio Escandón, as Consul General of Mexico in Miami, Florida, is the most unfortunate example of how the Mexican federal government is visualizing the coming months and years in the bilateral relationship with the …
Marco Rubio’s appointment as U.S. Secretary of State signals a shift in foreign policy towards Latin America, especially focusing on Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Tensions are expected between Mexico and the U.S. regarding trade policies and support for these nations, impacting the CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC agreement and potentially leading to significant diplomatic conflicts.
Omar Garcia Harfush, Secretary of Security, recently defined terrorism, excluding recent car bombings in Guanajuato as acts of criminal feuds. Critics argue his definition is too narrow, ignoring the broader implications of state and non-state terror in Mexico, where fear is a tool employed by both criminal groups and the government for control.
The U.S. elections present both opportunities and risks for Mexico’s political landscape. While some factions advocate for closer ties with authoritarian regimes, others push for strengthening North American relations. The election outcome will crucially dictate Mexico’s foreign policy direction, particularly regarding its relationships with the U.S., Russia, and China.