On January 10, 2025, Nicolás Maduro’s dictatorship was solidified in Venezuela with minimal international recognition, particularly from Latin America. Mexico’s foreign policy has shifted under López Obrador, aligning with repressive regimes like Cuba and Nicaragua, prioritizing political survival over democratic ideals, while risking relationships with traditional allies like the U.S. and Canada.
The relationship between Mexico and the United States poses significant challenges, particularly influenced by Trump’s demands and tariffs. Mexican governmental responses have been ineffective, often resorting to defensiveness. A productive approach requires acknowledging existential issues in Mexico and leveraging opportunities for collaboration with the U.S. to address mutual concerns effectively.
In a January 2025 interview, Ian Bremmer discusses critical geopolitical risks for the year, comparing it to historical tensions of the 1930s and Cold War era. Key issues include Trump’s potential resurgence, deteriorating US-China relations, a rogue Russian presence, and AI development concerns, alongside some hopeful developments amidst these challenges.
This report outlines ten significant risks that may affect Mexico’s business environment and democracy in 2025, highlighting concerns over power centralization and diminished checks and balances. With political instability and President Sheinbaum’s popularity, the government might favor short-term gains over long-term growth, jeopardizing economic competitiveness and nearshoring opportunities.
The writer expresses disappointment with the new President’s continuation of unhealthy polarization in Mexico, highlighting missed opportunities for listening to diverse voices. Concerns about governance, media pressures, nepotism, and fiscal management reflect a fractured political landscape. The need for serious governance and economic reform is emphasized for Mexico’s future prosperity.
In 2025, the world appears promising with diplomatic progress in major conflicts and economic expansion amid a growing population. However, significant challenges persist, particularly the lack of global governance and cooperation. The United States and China prioritize self-interests, leaving global issues unresolved, threatening sustainability and deepening societal divides.
The 21st century has seen significant turmoil, from historical crises to contemporary political challenges exemplified by rising extremism in Europe and the Middle East. The call for understanding history, maintaining faith, and creating structured plans for the future is essential as nations confront chaotic changes and the rise of authoritarian leaders, risking democratic ideals.
In 2020, President López Obrador’s announcement to commemorate Tenochtitlán’s founding date sparked criticism from historians, who argue it occurred in 1325, not 1321. Despite expert concerns, a celebration took place in 2021, leading to further plans for a 2025 commemoration aimed at reinterpreting Mexico City’s historical narrative and roots.
On December 30, 2024, El Universal aired concerns about potential armed uprisings in Mexico amid fears of U.S. intervention. A document attributed to AMLO revealed an alarming hardline perspective among Morena leaders, emphasizing anti-violence rhetoric while indicating potential insurrection against perceived threats from foreign military involvement and the U.S.
The new Mexican government faces significant challenges following substantial changes initiated by its predecessor. The government’s ideological focus hampers effective economic strategies, resulting in a deteriorating fiscal situation and limited private investment. As reality clashes with expectations, accountability demands from the populace will rise, pressuring the administration for tangible results.