Mexico Outlook October 2024

The analysis highlights Mexico’s projected lower GDP growth and inflation, emphasizing the need for business-friendly policies. Concerns about potential loss of investment-grade status arise from fiscal and institutional issues. The energy sector poses a risk to growth, while remittances support external balance. Sustainable public finances require credible fiscal consolidation.

Now is the Time for Definitions

The situation in Mexico is precarious as President Sheinbaum faces the challenge of exercising power amidst growing organized crime and international relations with the U.S. The anxiety surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections, judicial reforms in Mexico, and cartel dynamics may lead to heightened tensions and potential violence, emphasizing the urgent need for decisive leadership.

“I Guarantee”

In her address to business leaders, President Sheinbaum emphasized the importance of strengthening the free trade agreement and ensuring safe foreign investments in Mexico. However, her contradictory remarks raise doubts about the credibility of her guarantees. The prevailing uncertainty regarding Mexico’s political landscape may deter potential investors, undermining economic stability.

Luis Maizel’s Monthly Letter: Finally we come to the U.S. elections

In October, significant political and economic developments occurred, particularly in the U.S. where election campaigns highlighted polarization rather than proposals. Despite slight unemployment increases, economic growth remained strong at 2.8%. Meanwhile, Israel faced a budget crisis due to war expenses. Mexico saw mixed economic indicators, including record foreign investments but rising government deficits.

Mexican Supremacism

The content discusses the concept of supremacy in Mexican politics, emphasizing its role in undermining democracy and citizen rights. It critiques the current legislative power’s interpretation of constitutional supremacy, cautioning against an impending constitutional crisis due to legal fallacies and the neglect of universal rights, leading to a potential setback for Mexican democracy.

Who is in charge here?

The political landscape in Mexico is clouded by uncertainty regarding power dynamics and governance under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Recent proposals threaten judicial independence and raise concerns about potential democratic risks. While Morena consolidates its influence, the question remains: who truly wields power in this evolving political drama?

What is Terrorism?

Omar Garcia Harfush, Secretary of Security, recently defined terrorism, excluding recent car bombings in Guanajuato as acts of criminal feuds. Critics argue his definition is too narrow, ignoring the broader implications of state and non-state terror in Mexico, where fear is a tool employed by both criminal groups and the government for control.

Supremacy

The proposed constitutional reform in Mexico aims to assert supremacy of the Legislative Branch over the Judicial Branch, undermining the independence and balance of power mandated by the Constitution. This move, seen as authoritarian, threatens individual rights and the legal protection offered by the amparo trial, raising concerns about the government’s democratic intentions.

What Follows is the Control of Elections and the Media.

The article discusses the rise of populism and its threat to democracy, drawing parallels between the UK’s historical context and current events in Mexico under President Sheinbaum. Yuval Noah Harari warns against populists undermining democratic institutions and monopolizing authority, ultimately seeking to establish a dictatorship by silencing diverse voices and controlling media and judiciary systems.