Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
This week, Mexico has seen crisis after crisis for the federal government. There are public crises and there are hidden or underground ones. But it is impossible to conceal the gravity of the situation facing Mexico.
We should have learned something from Trump’s behavior toward Iran, when he deceived that country and the world with words and actions. We saw how he behaved, first by saying he was giving Iran and Israel two weeks to reach an agreement, when his planes were already flying toward their targets. And second, when they deployed decoy planes to throw off any surveillance of their main bombers. He lied and deceived the world, both in public and possibly in private. With that experience, we now have a better understanding of Trump’s operating style.
This experience must be sealed on the forehead of the Mexican government. The more honeyed and friendly Trump behaves, the more dangerous he is.
His plans for the southern border, which is how they view Mexico, were expressed by Attorney General Bondi in her testimony. When asked by Senator Graham about US policy toward Mexico, Bondi responded by saying that she could explain that policy, but only in a private and confidential conversation.
For now, Bondi had previously explained that the United States must confront several “adversary” countries, such as China, Russia, and Mexico! The fact that Mexico is considered an ‘adversary’ country marks the first time the US administration has publicly categorized Mexico in this conceptual category, which is typically associated with a military confrontation. President Sheinbaum said that the US official was “misinformed.”
As background, it is worth recalling the comment made by Secretary Kristi Noem when, while in the Oval Office with President Trump, she mistakenly referred to President Sheinbaum as fueling street protests in Los Angeles, California. Clearly, the idea that Mexico is an adversary is gaining ground in the Trump White House. Mexico responded by clarifying that she was referring to a different situation, not the street protests in Los Angeles.
All of Mexico’s responses have been defensive, cautious, and aimed at avoiding public controversy. In response, a major offensive against Mexico was launched, with three banks being declared money launderers for drug traffickers. In financial circles, it is expected that another bank will soon be added to the list.
The Vector brokerage firm was the primary target of this initial salvo against the Mexican banking system for two reasons. The first is because of the large amounts allegedly transacted for drug cartels, and the second is because it reinforces the thesis that obviously encourages the White House, which is that Mexican government politicians endorse the relationship with and support for the cartels.
This is the truth that swirls through the halls of the US Congress and the White House. They are convinced that Morena and its senior political leaders are directly linked to drug trafficking and that the party bases its consolidation and territorial growth on its ties to drug traffickers. When drug traffickers extort and subjugate a community, a municipality, or a state, they do so for their own benefit and to benefit Morena politically.
The truth is becoming increasingly impossible to hide. Based on its assessment of the high threat Mexico poses to its national security, the United States is undertaking a multifaceted project to eradicate drug trafficking from Mexico. If that means causing an earthquake within the ruling party, with the denunciation and/or arrest of current and former high-ranking officials, so be it.
So far, it has been clear that the US administration wants this to be a process of cleansing shared between the healthy and salvageable elements of Morena and the US security agencies. Both Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ambassador Ron Johnson have expressed this.
The hot potato is in the hands of the Mexican government. Very soon, defensive and cautious responses will no longer make sense. The red line has already been drawn. In reality, it will be very difficult to postpone decision-making.
The political clock is ticking for Mexico. On September 1, the new Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation will take office. In mid-2026, the World Cup will be played, and immediately after that, the 2027 midterm election process will begin. There will be another election of judges and magistrates, as well as a recall vote. If things continue as they are today, this swarm of elections will put the ruling party entirely in the hands of the power mafias. As things stand, the 2030 election appears to be a foregone conclusion. The Great Mafia will take over the country.
Lazaro Cardenas endured the Maximato for a year and five months. Then he took the reins of power and finally began to govern the country. He had to bang his fist on the table and send Plutarco Elias Calles into exile, precisely to the United States. If Mexico allows itself to be governed, it must be with a strong presidency capable of resolution. Effective action cannot wait, for example, the process of revoking the mandate. Time and reality are imposing themselves.
Mexico finds it difficult to accept an essential limitation on its political definitions: the existence and pressures of its powerful neighbor to the north. With Trump, it is even more difficult. But he has ushered in a new era in bilateral relations. There will be no turning back on the issue of cartels, insecurity, and the link between cartels and politics.
Even without Trump as president, Mexico will have to resolve this existential issue. And it is time to recognize another undeniable truth. AMLO legitimized the open relationship between politics and drug trafficking. He allowed local political agreements. He facilitated the flow of money between all the eager hands of Morena leaders and those who were not-so-leaders. The case of Alfonso Romo and Vector is the tip of the iceberg, the unmistakable hallmark of the six-year term and government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
That is the magnitude of the challenge that must be met to free Mexico from the narco-political alliance of the previous administration and, at the same time, successfully resist pressure from the United States. That is the undeniable truth.
ricardopascoe@hotmail.com
@rpascoep
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