Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
Trump has ushered in, whether we like it or not, a new and prolonged era in bilateral relations between his country and Mexico. It is a time of policies that will endure beyond the Trump presidency. Migration, security, and protectionist economic policies from the north are here to stay. The reason is simple. Democrats and Republicans, despite their differences, generally agree on these issues. So, if the Democrats win the next election, Mexico will continue to face the same pressures as it does now. The style may vary, but the substance remains the same.
One need only recall the times when Democratic administrations have pushed for the same goals that Republicans are now advocating. When the Free Trade Agreement was negotiated, it was Bush Sr. who agreed to and negotiated a large part of the treaty with Mexico and Canada. However, Bush lost the election before the bill was signed, and Clinton took office, demanding protectionist changes for the auto industry unions, including quotas for components made in the United States, among other provisions. From then on, Democratic opposition to the agreement on protectionist grounds shifted favorably in Congress, and it was approved with votes from both Republicans and Democrats.
On immigration, the US president who deported the most migrants during his entire term was Obama. Discreetly and without publicity, he was relentless in deporting new and old migrants. During his two terms, he deported more than three million undocumented immigrants. Trump, in his first three years, managed to deport some 300,000 undocumented immigrants. And now his numbers are not spectacular either, despite the scandal he is causing. He is even being forced to back down in the case of some sectors of industry and services.
And Biden, the Democrat who got along decently with López Obrador, discovered that he could not change Mexican policy toward drug trafficking. Therefore, he authorized the most spectacular and successful clandestine operation in the history of the US SEALS. They managed to deceive, capture, kidnap, and extract from Mexico the capo di tutti capi: Mayo Zambada. With that operation, he plunged the Mexican government into a deep crisis from which it has been unable to escape. Moreover, with Trump, the crisis is deepening day by day. But the critical thing to remember is that the entire current dynamic of the breakdown of the security system and narco-politics began its descent into chaos with the Democrat Biden.
May all this serve to refute the voices within the Mexican ruling party that call for calm, saying that “Trump is almost gone, and those who come after him will be softer and more amenable.” This clamor stems from the idea that the ruling party’s relations with drug traffickers must temporarily go underground and wait for the end of the Trump administration.
And then everything will continue as before. Andrés Manuel López Obrador repeated Kalimán’s words in his mañaneras: “Patience and prudence are the weapons of the wise.” Now they are the leitmotif for Morena and the Sheinbaum administration. It’s as if he were Sun Tzu.
If it is intelligent, the Mexican government must prepare for a paradigm shift in governance. Like Italy, Mexico will have to leave behind its shameful co-government with drug traffickers, perform surgery to separate the Siamese twins, and kill the deformed child. It will be traumatic because of the political, social, and human costs it will entail, including the arrest of those addicted to dirty money, such as Alfonso Romo. The mistake has been made by many, and for a long time, by allowing the cancer to grow. Now is the time to remove it and administer harsh chemotherapy.
If this is not done, others will do it despite the Fourth Transformation, and that will be much more painful and costly for Mexico.
ricardopascoe@hotmail.com
@rpascoep
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